Rapes – by Police Force Regions

Rapes  by Police Force Regions (Eng. & Wales)

by Robert Whiston FRSA   Sept 2010

Is there such a thing as ‘hot spots’ for false allegations of rape ?

Well, there are, if you assume that in some areas the numbers found guilty are disproportionately smaller when compared to the number of trials.  A large number of acquittals or not guilty verdicts might, in these circumstances, indicate that the charges should not have been brought in the first place.

The sheer size of the table (spanning 1997 to 2007), has meant that it is here displayed as two separate tables, Fig 1  and Fig 2.

The Table below (Fig 1) is for England & Wales and depicts, by police force area, the number of defendants for rape offences proceeded against at magistrates’ courts but where the verdict was a). not guilty and b) guilty (1997 – 2000). The caveat is that the numbers are taken from Magistrates’ courts who do not hear rape cases – they are handed on to the Crown Court for adjudication.

Without doubt the worst area, i.e. the one where it is most likely to be falsely accused is in the region where the Avon and Somerset police operate. For 1997, 17.6% found guilty compared with those found not guilty).

Some rather excitable women’s groups, who see everyone accused of rape as automatically guilty would, of course, interpret the same table very differently. They would complain that too many rapists are being let out on the streets to rape again – it’s a pity the numbers of rapes these rapists could perpetrate if indeed they were rapists in the first place don’t bear out their frantic fears.

These excitable women’s groups might immediately fasten onto police forces like Avon and Somerset, complaining they were not putting up a good enough show or the regional CPS was particularly poor at securing convictions.

West Yorkshire with 66 ‘not guilty’ verdicts and 23 ‘guilty’ verdicts produces a 34% ratio while the West Midlands has one of the highest conviction rates at 55%. Devon and Cornwall is a typical force at the lower end of the scale with a conviction rate of approx 27% (11/40), but Dorset was even lower at 17%.

FIG 1. The number of defendants proceeded against at magistrates courts for rape offences (1), by outcome (2) and police force area (3), 1997 to 2007 ( 4,5). England & Wales
	1997		1998		1999		2000
Police force areas	Where proceedings did not lead to a finding of guilt	Number found guilty	Where proceedings did not lead to a finding of guilt	Number found guilty	Where proceedings did not lead to a finding of guilt	Number found guilty	Where proceedings did not lead to a finding of guilt	Number found guilty
Avon and Somerset	51	9	52	14	60	9	44	13
Bedfordshire	18	5	26	2	27	5	24	5
Cambridge-shire	15	5	15	2	32	4	23	4
Cheshire	11	8	19	9	17	11	17	11
City of London	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2
Cleveland	5	7	13	5	8	8	12	5
Cumbria	11	—	7	4	10	4	3	3
Derbyshire	30	7	30	6	29	10	25	11
Devon and Cornwall	40	11	10	23	16	17	15	12
Dorset	23	4	13	4	14	7	7	13
Durham	7	7	16	9	18	5	34	3
Essex	27	17	45	13	47	8	27	4
Gloucester-shire	7	2	10	2	9	4	12	7
Greater Manchester	118	25	99	44	97	26	70	41
Hampshire	39	26	48	21	59	25	61	21
Hertfordshire	16	8	10	6	13	7	22	4
Humberside	6	8	17	7	12	8	16	6
Kent	17	12	32	9	18	14	28	17
Lancashire	42	13	38	16	30	28	49	13
Leicester-shire	36	9	25	17	12	12	27	6
Lincolnshire	16	6	21	5	16	3	14	7
Merseyside	7	14	39	17	34	10	53	8
Metropolitan Police	200	95	209	94	268	88	212	97
Norfolk	14	2	16	2	20	2	9	4
North York-shire	12	3	9	6	13	7	8	6
Northampton-shire	0	3	9	4	7	8	4	5
Northumbria	59	24	96	21	83	20	71	16
Nottingham-shire	48	11	42	14	29	21	38	16
South Yorkshire	27	17	26	11	12	14	38	6
Stafford-sh	27	10	17	9	12	13	—	14
Suffolk	12	4	22	4	11	8	8	5
Surrey	9	3	12	4	10	2	16	2
Sussex	6	13	31	13	26	8	34	7
ThamesValley	48	13	39	9	21	16	24	13
Warwick-shire	4	—	6	1	4	1	5	1
West Mercia	15	10	23	10	16	8	13	5
West Midlands	65	36	99	44	103	31	113	29
West Yorkshire	66	23	58	43	102	41	91	38
Wiltshire	21	3	23	2	11	1	4	4
Dyfed-Powys	14	6	14	2	26	5	20	4
Gwent	24	11	30	3	23	8	17	7
North Wales	23	6	22	9	18	6	19	4
South Wales	41	21	54	31	46	28	43	20
Total	1,277	517	1,441	571	1,425	561	1,346	519

The Total, at the bottom of the table, shows that the number of trials that resulted in a not guilt verdict rose from 1,277 in 1997, to 1,425 in 1999 but fell back slightly in 2000 to 1,346.

The bottom line Total gives us the overall ratio of 45% across all of Britain’s police forces (517/1,277). However, by 2000 even the national conviction rate had dropped to 38% (519/1,346).

No where do the numbers ‘found guilty’ exceed the numbers found ‘not guilty.’ When we reach a point when they do then we should really worry.

The Table below (Fig 2), uses the same format but for the years 2005 – 2007 i.e. after the passing of the 2003 Sex Offenders Act which broadened the scope of sex offending and thus made convictions easier.

FIG 2. The number of defendants proceeded against at magistrates courts for rape offences ( 1) , by outcome ( 2) and police force area ( 3) , 1997 to 2007 ( 4,5) . England & Wales
	2005		2006		2007
Police force area	Where proceedings did not lead to a finding of guilt	Number found guilty	Where proceedings did not lead to a finding of guilt	Number found guilty	Where proceedings did not lead to a finding of guilt	Number found guilty
Avon and Somerset	44	11	47	17	41	18
Bedfordshire	16	8	14	5	8	8
Cambridgeshire	17	9	16	6	19	6
Cheshire	29	10	15	17	14	11
City of London	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cleveland	33	8	16	16	11	20
Cumbria	9	6	10	5	9	9
Derbyshire	52	12	28	20	35	14
Devon and Cornwall	1	19	10	18	8	21
Dorset	16	4	13	8	19	3
Durham	25	8	25	7	22	4
Essex	38	11	17	12	9	8
Gloucestershire	12	3	14	13	26	5
Greater Manchester	134	46	122	47	127	44
Hampshire	71	27	32	30	65	25
Hertfordshire	41	6	46	8	10	12
Humberside	27	16	19	26	1	22
Kent	35	17	44	17	33	26
Lancashire	87	13	49	29	57	23
Leicestershire	37	10	27	7	18	11
Lincolnshire	19	13	7	7	6	6
Merseyside	18	23	26	15	19	15
Metropolitan Police	462	104	404	133	367	138
Norfolk	-6	10	11	14	1	11
North Yorkshire	19	11	21	11	16	10
Northamptonshire	12	7	0	12	7	9
Northumbria	43	11	40	19	31	21
Nottinghamshire	38	18	37	13	22	18
South Yorkshire	26	35	38	25	23	24
Staffordshire	32	13	38	8 p	20	20
Suffolk	24	7	24	12	14	5
Surrey	20	4	15	5	14	4
Sussex	53	11	44	11	17	24
Thames Valley	60	21	59	17	31	23
Warwickshire	2	8	6	5	8	2
West Mercia	35	11	20	14	15	9
West Midlands	95	62	113	48	104	55
West Yorkshire	62	48	24	37	32	42
Wiltshire	27	3	10	11	13	7
Dyfed-Powys	7	4	9	3	7	5
Gwent	28	7	35	7	21	14
North Wales	15	3	15	3	3	10
South Wales	51	16	43	16	54	15
Total	1,864	694	1,581	754	1,361	777
(1) Includes Rape of a female aged under 16—Sexual Offences Act 2003, section 1. Rape of a female aged 16 or over—Sexual Offences Act 2003, section 1. Rape of a male aged under 16—Sexual Offences Act 2003, section 1. Rape of a male aged 16 or over—Sexual Offences Act 2003, section 1. Rape of a female child under 13 by a male—Sexual Offences Act 2003, section 5. Rape of a male child under 13 by a male—Sexual Offences Act 2003, section 5. (2 )“Where proceedings did not lead to a finding of guilt” covers defendants tried and found not guilty as well as proceedings that were discontinued or cases where no evidence was offered, charges were withdrawn or the judge ruled that there was no case to answer. (3 )Staffordshire police force were only able to submit sample data for persons proceeded against and convicted in the magistrates courts for the year 2000. Although sufficient to estimate higher order of data, these data are not robust enough at a detailed level and have been excluded from the table. (See also footnote (5)) (4 )These data are on the principal offence basis. (5 )Every effort is made to ensure that the figures presented are accurate and complete However, it is important to note that these data have been extracted from large administrative data systems generated by the courts and police forces As a consequence, care should be taken to ensure data collection processes and their inevitable limitations are taken into account when those data are used. Source: Office for Criminal Justice Reform—Evidence and Analysis Unit, & Hansard 22 Jan 2009 : Column 1603W -: Column 1608W.

The ability to successfully prosecute would appear to have been enhanced following the 2003 Act – if the numbers are taken at face value.

The number of court trials went up significantly in 2005 as a product of the number of defendants found ‘not guilty’ at 1,864 which was higher than previous years. By 2007 the number of defendants found ‘not guilty’ had fallen back to 2000 levels, i.e. circa 1,361.

What was significantly different from the previous era, i.e. pre the Sex Offences Act 2003 (1997 – 2000), were the number of ‘guilty’ convictions – up from 515 in 1997 to 777 in 2007.